|Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)|
| NIPCC vs. IPCC Addressing the Disparity between Climate Models and Observations: Testing the Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)
||S. Fred Singer is Professor Emeritus at the University of Virginia and chairman of the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP).|
|Abstract: This booklet updates NIPCC report Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate (2008) and contains new results:
1. It defends NIPCC against false claims that IPCC climate models are "consistent" with observed temperature trends. The central issue is the cause of global warming: Is it natural or is it manmade? [This issue is of crucial importance for both climate science and for climate policy.]
2. It demonstrates that because of their chaotic character none of IPCC's climate models can be validated against observations and used to predict future temperatures.
3. It presents new thinking on Climategate, Hockeystick graph -- and multiple evidence against the claimed surface warming underlying the IPCC conclusion of AGW. [Is the reported 1979-1997 warming real?]
| Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of Climate Models
||S. Fred Singer and Christopher Walter Monckton of Brenchley|
|Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: Meehl et al., 2001) acknowledges that, mathematically speaking, the climate is a complex, non-linear, chaotic object and that, therefore, the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The parameters describing the model's initial state must be known to a precision that is unattainable in practice. Accordingly, any comparison of modeled with observed temperature trends cannot be done satisfactorily without an understanding of the chaoticity of a climate model. A synthetic experiment, using two distinct procedures, demonstrates that no fewer than about 20 simulations run on a typical IPCC general-circulation model are a prerequisite for determining useful constraints upon chaos-induced climatic uncertainties.
| A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions
||David H. Douglass, John R. Christy, Benjamin D. Pearson and S. Fred Singer|
|Abstract: We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 'Climate of the 20th Century' model
simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era).
Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by
more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than
observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with
those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society