CURRENT TWTW (The Week That Was)
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Date: July 24,
2010
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“The best protection we have against offshore accidents is to end our dependence on oil.” Frances Beineke, President of Natural Resources Defense Council and member of the special presidential commission on the Gulf Oil Spill, (NRDC blog, 5/4/10) [H/t Institute for Energy Research]
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FORUM: SEPP and VA-SEEE will conduct an open forum on Saturday, September 25 at 10:30 am. It will be held at Ernst Cultural Center on the Annandale Campus of the Northern Virginia Community College about one mile outside the Beltway on Little River Turnpike, Annandale, Virginia
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In what appears to be a significant change of events, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that he is dropping cap and tax for now because he does not have enough votes to pass the legislation. Even an editorial in the Las Vegas Review Journal expressed relief that the nation has been spared of this destructive energy tax that would accomplish nothing for climate change. Is it that Senator Reid actually recognizes he does not have the votes? Is it that he is in a tight race to keep his Senate seat? Or is it something more devious?
Given the propensity of the leaders of the 111th Congress to develop thousands of pages of legislation behind closed doors and quickly dump it onto an unsuspecting public, one must be suspicious. Further, corporations and special interest groups have spent millions of dollars on mobilizing one of the greatest lobbing efforts ever. Some, such as Duke Energy and Exelon, have promised their shareholders that they would get Billions of US dollars in profits from this lobbing “investment.” The massive volumes of money that would change hands with cap and tax have attracted many organizations that demand special government “favors.” They will not be pleased.
As mentioned in TWTW last week, some commentators have suggested that after the election a lamb duck Congress will pass some version of cap and tax. The Wall Street Journal suggests that it may be a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) which would require utilities to obtain mandatory percentages of their total electricity from renewable generating sources such as solar and wind. Until practical electricity storage is commercially available at a reasonable cost, solar and wind generated electricity is sub-prime energy. Even with government subsidies, the sub-prime energy market will eventually implode as did the sub-prime mortgage market that was driven by government dictates. An implosion of the sub-prime energy market may have greater destructive economic consequences. (Please see “Son of Cap and Tax” under Articles.)
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Number of the Week: is $2.1 Trillion $2,100,000,000.00. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, that is the rough estimate by Chamberlain Economics of the value of carbon allowances that will be distributed free under the Kerry-Lieberman cap and tax bill. As our founding fathers recognized, power attracts the ambitious – and so does huge amounts of money.
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The Climategate non-inquiry appears to have unintended consequences. Some traditional allies of the orthodoxy, including New Scientist, are questioning the lack of candor in the inquiries.
Comments by hockey stick buster, Steve McIntyre, on CRU’s lack of quality control of temperature data may be of interest to many, including those litigating against the EPA endangerment finding. (Please see below under “ClimateGate”)
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The peer reviewed paper which is part of the basis for Roy Spencer’s new book The Great Global Warming Blunder, reviewed in TWTW July 3 and 10, has been challenged. As all too typical today, the Journal of Climate did not bother informing Spencer so that he could review the challenge and respond. According to Spencer, had the Journal done so he could have corrected some errors and misrepresentations. Spencer points out the challenge offers some new insights, but the major “issues” were corrected in a later paper that is in press. (Please see “Can Climate Feedbacks be Diagnosed from Satellite Data?”)
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Joe D’Aleo has discovered that NASA-GISS is playing games with historic data yet again – call it Creative Enhancement. (Please see his article under “Challenging the Orthodoxy.”) Also, Anthony Watts has discovered missing data in NOAA’s latest heat advisory. More stunning is the sudden cold snap that froze to death thousands of head of cattle in central Brazil. (Please see articles under “Heat Wave.”)
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The BP Oil Spill has been capped, at least for now, but the true cost to the oil industry in general and the nation as a whole is yet to be determined. No doubt, many in the US government would like to use it as an excuse to stop all offshore drilling. The House Energy and Commerce Committee headed by Rep. Waxman passed legislation that will do exactly that. (Please see “Blowout Prevention Act”)
To their credit, four major oil companies are forming a disaster-response system to quickly shut-off deep water blow-outs in the Gulf of Mexico. It is unknown if this would be sufficient address the new Waxman anti-drilling bill. Given the anti-energy attitude in Washington (except for sub-prime energy), some may suggest that the Department of Justice investigates the disaster-response system as unlawful collusion under the Sherman Anti-trust Act.
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BOOK OF THE WEEK
Coming climate crisis? By Claire L. Parkinson
Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham MD. 2010. 412 pp.
Reviewed by S. Fred Singer
This is an unusual book. Parkinson is a distinguished climatologist with a specialty of polar sea ice and a strong interest in the history and philosophy of science. She clearly believes that humans are responsible for past warming and that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to further warming in the 21st century, yet she is one of the few AGW supporters who is respectful of contrary opinions. It is interesting that the Foreword, written by Lonnie Thompson, while praising her book, faults her for ascribing “nearly equivalent validity to the contributions of climate skeptics or contrarians.” But Parkinson is unapologetic and explains her position well throughout the book.
Her main theme is to argue effectively against the current craze for “geo-engineering.” I share her view that many of the schemes suggested lack proper evaluation and are likely to cause more harm than good. However, I also doubt the necessity for carrying out large-scale modifications of the global environment since I do not believe that the human emission of greenhouse gases is causing significant climate changes.
Full disclosure: About 40 years ago, I was quite intrigued by the idea of large-scale modifications of the earth’s environment and included it in discussions in a symposium which I organized for the AAAS, entitled “Global Effects of Environmental Pollution.” After publishing a book on this symposium, I worked with the National Research Council on producing a report on geo-engineering, which described the various schemes that were then under consideration. Since this was long before there was any widespread discussion of greenhouse warming, our report dealt with different topics.
The Parkinson book has some very attractive features. A well-written Introduction presents an overview of the Earth System and a descriptive outline of the book itself. Part I describes very well the history of climate change since the earth was created 4.6 billion years ago. There’s also a nice summary of abrupt climate changes.
After this discussion of natural changes, there’s a short history of past human impacts and a chapter on the future, with the intriguing title “Why Some People are So Concerned While Others Aren’t.” While I don’t agree with everything the author says, I do feel she has given adequate space to skeptics like Patrick Michaels and Roy Spencer. She also gives much space to Bjorn Lomborg, who seems to accept the scientific conclusions of the IPCC, but as an economist/statistician does not accept any of their recommendations for action.
And on this point, I agree most emphatically.
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ARTICLES: [For the numbered articles below please see the attached pdf.]
1. A Climate Absolution?
The alarmists still won’t separate science from politics
Editorial, WSJ, July 16, 2010
2. Global warming’s unscientific attitude
Peddlers of phony scare stories are afraid to release data
Editorial Washington Times, July 21, 2010 [H/t Deke Forbes]
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/21/global-warmings-unscientific-attitude/
3. Son of Cap and Tax
The destructive fine print in Harry Reid’s energy bill
Editorial, WSJ, July 22, 2010
4. Global Warming’s Golden Moment Has Passed
By Daniel Flynn, Human Events, July 17, 2010
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=38093
5. Not Warming-Up to War?
World Climate Report, July 22, 2010 [Excerpt]
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/
[SEPP Comment: The 11 retired generals and admirals who reported global warming will lead to war failed in their most basic duty as strategic planners – know your enemy. They accepted the speculation of the IPCC as definitive intelligence without bothering to test the assumptions. They apparently did not examine the history of warfare as articulated by historians: generally, in non-developed areas cooling leads to war (crops fail) and warming does not.]
6. Oil Majors Building Disaster-Response System
By Angel Gonzalez, WSJ, July 21, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704684604575381422950478384.html?mod=djemalertNEWS
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ClimateGate
‘The Inquiry Reports Are Lousy’ – An Interview with Steve McIntyre
By Alex Reichmuth, Die Weltwoche, July 22, 2010 [H/t Francois Guillaumat]
Climategate inquiry glosses over the facts
By Iain Murray, Examiner, July 20, 2010
Inquiry Disinformation about CRUTEM
By Steve McIntyre, July 21, 2010
http://climateaudit.org/2010/07/21/inquiry-disinformation-about-crutem/#more-11505
[“My long-standing position on CRUTEM was that CRU’s obstruction of data requests was most likely due to its desire to conceal that it did so little work on quality control; that the CRU result could be derived so trivially that, in effect, CRU no longer served any useful function in this field.”]
US Government Halts Funds For Climate Unit
By Jonathan Leake, Sunday Times, July 18, 2010
http://www.thegwpf.org/climategate/1262-us-government-halts-funds-for-climate-research-unit-cru.html
[SEPP Comment: Uncertainty exists as to how much CRU received from the US. Anthony Watts estimates it is well into the millions. http://wattsupwiththat.com/)]
Without candour, we can’t trust climate science
Editorial, New Scientist, July 18, 2010
Does New Scientist Foresee Paradigm Shift on Climate Theory?
By John ‘Sullivan, Suite 101, July 20, 2010
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Our Readers conduct Part 2 of the interview with John Christy
By Thomas Fuller, Examiner, July 16, 2010
Progressive Enhancement of Global Temperature Trends
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Creative_Enhancement_of_Global_Temperature_Trends.pdf
[SEPP Comment: When the data doesn’t fit your premise, adjust it.]
Can Climate Feedbacks be Diagnosed from Satellite Data?
Comments on the Murphy & Forster (2010) Critique of Spencer & Braswell (2008)
By Roy Spencer, July 19, 2010
[SEPP Comment: Scroll down to the article. Highly recommended.]
Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself
If the planet determines Canada should freeze again, the best response would be to sell your Canadian real estate
By Neil Reynolds, Globe and Mail, July 19, 2010 [H/t Real Clear Politics]
Washington State’s Climate Executive Order Challenged
By Paul Chesser, American Spectator, July 21, 2010
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/07/21/washington-states-endangerment
Heat Wave
Historical Cold Snap Freezes South America
By Alexandre Aguiar / MetSul Weather Center [H/t Joe D’Aleo, ICECAP]
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Freezing in South America is no more an indication of global cooling than the heat wave in the US Northeast is an indication of global warming. But it does balance certain outrageous AGW claims.]
NOAA’s Jan-Jun 2010 Warmest Ever: Missing Data, False Impressions
By Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That, July 17, 2010
[SEPP Comment: The Watts team digs deep into NOAA claims – “There seems to be an inverse correlation between the number of stations and warming –more stations in a 5 X 5 degree grid and less warming is observed.”]
Cap and Tax
Cap-and-trade bites the dust –for now
Editorial, Las Vegas Review Journal, July 24, 2010
http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/energy-policy-99163499.html?ref=499
Senate Democrats abandon comprehensive climate bill
By Perry Bacon, Washington Post, July 22, 2010 [H/t Joe Bast]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/22/AR2010072203614.html
Reid to Senate Dems: Climate change bill will wait until fall
By Darren Goode, The Hill, July 22, 2010 [H/t Marc Morano, Climate Depot]
Green Dreams Die Ugly On Capitol Hill
By Walter Russell Mead, American Interest, July 20, 2010 [H/t Real Clear Politics]
BP Spill and Aftermath
Feds haven’t treated spill like national disaster
By James Carafano, Washington Examiner, July 19, 2010
Blowout Prevention Act – Will Rs Get Buyer’s Remorse? (Modified July 18, 2010)
By Marlo Lewis, Open Market, July 16, 2010
http://www.openmarket.org/2010/07/16/blowout-prevention-act-will-rs-get-buyers-remorse/
[SEPP Comment: What this nation needs – Allowing the Environmental Industry to define energy policy through the courts.]
U.S. Drills Deep Into BP as Spill Drama Drags On
By Monica Langley, WSJ, July 21, 2010
U.S. Approves Shallow-Water Well in Gulf
By Siobhan Hughes, WSJ, July 20, 2010
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703720504575377322984605424.html?mod=ITP_pageone_2
[SEPP Comment: One is not a trend.]
Experts Ask Why BP Delayed Cap
By Guy Chazan, WSJ, July 22, 2010
Taking Lessons From What Went Wrong
By William Broad, NYT, July 19, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/science/20lesson.html?th&emc=th
One Person’s Oil Addict is Another’s Intelligent Consumer
By Michael Lynch, Master Resource, July 21, 2010
http://www.masterresource.org/2010/07/oil-addiction-lynch/
Energy Issues
GAO Report: Carbon Capture Increases Power Costs up to 80%
By Connie Hair, Human Events, July 16, 2010
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=38115
[SEPP Comment: If it works on a commercial scale.]
Britain faces years of blackouts and soaring energy bills: Expert warns a banking-style collapse in power industry
By Daily Mail Reporter, Daily Mail, July 19, 2010
Obama appeals to a higher power
The O Force keeps nuclear energy on a blue-ribbon coke chain
Editorial, Washington Times, July 20, 2010
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jul/20/obama-appeals-to-a-higher-power/
US Leads World in Greenhouse Gas Reductions
By Wendell Cox, Newgeography, July 20, 2010 [H/t Joe Bast]
http://www.newgeography.com/content/001682-us-leads-world-greenhouse-gas-reduction
[SEPP Comment: Unfortunately much of this reduction is due to the recession. However, US emissions per unit of GDP declined significantly for years before the recession.]
Bill Would Make Half of All Cars Electric By 2030
By Jonathan Welsh, WSJ, July 22, 2010
http://blogs.wsj.com/drivers-seat/2010/07/22/bill-would-make-half-of-all-cars-electric-by-2030/
[SEPP Comment: With over One Billion US dollars ($1,000,000,000.00) committed in loans and subsidies to two newly created car manufacturers that plan to sell electric sports cars for $90,000 plus, the government needs to create a market.]
Communicate Better With the Public – Exaggerate
Example of Media Overstatement
By Roger Pielke, Sr., Climate Science, July 21, 2010 [H/t Watts Up With That]
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/07/21/example-of-media-overstatement/
NIPCC Review of Recent Science Articles
For the full scope of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Ocean Mass Trends (and Sea Level Estimates) from GRACE
Quinn, K.J. and Ponte, R.M. 2010. Uncertainty in ocean mass trends from GRACE. Geophysical Journal International 181: 762-768.
Archived, July 22, 2010
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/22jul2010a7.html
A Holocene History of Floodplain Occupation on the Upper Reaches of the Zapadnaya Dvina and Volga Rivers
Panin, A.V. and Nefedov, V.S. 2010. Analysis of variations in the regime of rivers and lakes in the Upper Volga and Upper Zapadnaya Dvina based on archaeological-geomorphological data. Water Resources 37: 16-32.
Archived July 22, 2010
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/22jul2010a5.html
Solar-Precipitation Connections on the Tibetan Plateau
Zhao, C., Yu, Z., Zhao, Y. and Ito, E. 2009. Possible orographic and solar controls of Late Holocene centennial-scale moisture oscillations in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Geophysical Research Letters 36: 10.1029/2009GL040951.
Archived July 21, 2010
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/21jul2010a2.html
Coherent Detection of the Medieval Warm Period in Multiple Data Sets
Dergachev, V.A., Raspopov, O.M. 2010a. Reconstruction of the Earth's surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes, global warming in the last millennium, and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 1. Experimental data. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 50: 383-392.
Dergachev, V.A., Raspopov, O.M. 2010b. Reconstruction of the Earth's surface temperature based on data of deep boreholes, global warming in the last millennium, and long-term solar cyclicity. Part 2. Experimental data analysis. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 50: 393-402.
Archived, July 21, 2010
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/jul/21jul2010a4.html
Miscellaneous Topics That May Be of Interest
Beautiful ‘lost’ insect turns up anew in UK
By Richard Black, BBC News, July 21, 2010 [H/t Malcolm Ross]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10718550
[SEPP Comment: Is this proof of global warming?]
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Sen. Kerry Predicts ‘Ice-Free Arctic’ in ‘5 or 10 Years’
By Penny Starr, CNS News, July 23, 2010 [H/t Brad Veek]
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/69845
[SEPP Comment: More Kerry claims and NOAA “predictions.”]
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